本所助理教授陳宗巖研究「歐盟國家為何紛紛加入亞投行」的論文獲刊於Asia Europe Journal國際學術期刊。

Chen, Ian Tsung-yen. 2018. "European participation in the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank: Making strategic choice and seeking economic opportunities." Asia Europe Journal 16(4): 297-315. 

Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10308-017-0498-x

論文標題
European participation in the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank: Making strategic choice and seeking economic opportunities

英文摘要
This paper asks why half of the members of the European Union (EU) have chosen to join the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) in defiance of substantial pressure from Washington. If the AIIB is too good an economic opportunity for Europe to ignore, then why did the rest of the EU turn its back on this organization? To account for this apparent variation in the attitude of European countries, I argue that, ceteris paribus, changes in the strategic situation involving Europe, the USA, and China, as well as differing expectations of economic opportunities in a developing Asia, have led European countries in different directions. Those countries which are getting increasingly friendly with China, which results from increasing level of alliance security dilemma with the USA, and are highly dependent on the potentially gigantic Asian market are the most likely to follow China’s lead. Countries that are not so geared toward China or Asia are least likely to join the AIIB. Where only one of these factors is present, the country will remain hesitant. I test this argument using both quantitative and qualitative analysis. This includes probit analysis for 31 countries and three in-depth case studies involving Germany, Belgium, and Romania. These countries have a high, median, and low chance of joining the bank, respectively. The findings of both types of analysis support the proposed analytical framework.

中文摘要
本文探討為何在面對來自美國的巨大壓力下，會有一半的歐盟成員國選擇加入中國領導的亞洲基礎設施投資銀行（亞投行）。如果亞投行是很好的經濟機會以致於歐洲無法忽視，那麼為什麼其餘的歐盟成員國會拒絕這個組織呢？本文認為在其他條件不變下，歐洲、美國和中國在戰略形勢的改變，以及歐洲對發展中亞洲經濟機會期待的差異，導致了歐洲國家採取了不同的策略。那些與中國日益友好、與美國在聯盟安全困境上提升，以及高度依賴著潛在龐大亞洲市場的歐洲國家，最可能加入亞投行；那些不那麼傾向中國或亞洲的國家則最不可能加入亞投行，若只存在部分因素，會使國家對是否加入亞投行產生猶豫。本研究以量化途徑分析了31個歐洲國家的立場，並以德國、比利時和羅馬尼亞三個深入的個案比較分析，研究結果支持本研究的分析架構。