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張晉赫:台灣的複數選區立委怎麼想?

本所張晉赫教授與中央研究院政治所林政楠研究員共同研究的論文「個人選票、政黨競爭力與立法代表:以台灣的複數選區單記不可讓渡制為例」獲刊於國際學術期刊Japanese Journal of Political Science (SSCI)。

Jinhyeok Jang and Nick Lin. "Personal Votes, Electoral Competitiveness of Parties, and Legislative Representation in Taiwan under SNTV." Forthcoming in Japanese Journal of Political Science.

Doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/S1468109918000397​

論文標題
Personal Votes, Electoral Competitiveness of Parties, and Legislative Representation in Taiwan under SNTV

英文摘要
We advance the literature on electoral institutions and legislative representation by investigating legislators’ position taking strategies in Taiwan under the single non-transferable voting period. Existing research largely assumes that representatives elected from the same electoral rule behave similarly. We challenge this conventional understanding by arguing that legislators in multi-member districts (MMDs) tend to move toward the extreme direction from the party line if they come from districts where their party is less competitive. This pattern of legislative representation allows them to appeal to partisan voters, as lowering one's partisan profile can be too costly in such districts. On the contrary, those who are elected from strong partisan districts are expected to deviate from the party toward the moderate direction. Given a solid partisan foundation in these districts, these legislators may target voters across party lines. Our analysis covering the entire period of MMD elections after Taiwan's democratization (1992–2008) provides robust empirical evidence to our theoretical claim. Our findings, therefore, shed lights for future studies on the intertwining nature between electoral systems, district level factors, and legislative representation.

中文摘要
本文研究台灣的立法委員在複數選區單記不可讓渡制 (SNTV) 下表現議題立場的行為。現有的文獻往往假設,從同一選舉規則中選出的民意代表會採取相似的行為,而本文試圖挑戰這種觀點。我們認為,在複數選區下,那些從政黨競爭力較弱的選區選出的民意代表會在議題上採取較其所屬政黨極端的立場,藉此吸引黨派色彩較深的選民。這是因為在競爭力較弱的選區中,降低個人的黨派色彩來效吸引跨黨派的支持者可能會失去原有選民的支持,進而輸掉未來的選舉。相反的,那些從政黨競爭力較強的選區選出的民意代表,在已經具備堅實政黨基礎的情況下,則是會採取相對於其所屬政黨較為溫和的立場,藉此來吸引跨黨派選民的支持。我們針對台灣在民主化後的SNTV時期 (1992-2008) 立法委員的記名投票進行分析,發現了支持本文論點的強力經驗性證據。本研究的結果也顯示,選區層級的因素對於選舉制度與立法代表之間的關係有非常重要的影響力,值得未來的研究持續探討。